Orientation, variation and question architecture
Planning (DPE)
Planning determines what Pronoia collects and what DAE can interpret. The quality of the study is decided here — two locked starting choices (orientation and variation) plus the scoping of the phenomenon and theses shape everything downstream.
Orientation — from which standpoint the future is studied
Orientation is the study's locked starting choice. It affects how theses are framed, how the panel is composed, and how the facilitator acts between rounds (in Pronoia it also drives the PIRE round-gap assistant).
| Orientation | Core | Relation to consensus |
|---|---|---|
| N — Normative | Desirability and the desired state. "What future is good?" | Leans toward consensus — seeking a shared view of the goal |
| S — Strategic | Feasibility and agency. "How is the goal reached, who acts?" | Emphasises means and alternatives |
| R — Radical | Ruptures and protecting deviance. "What could change fundamentally?" | Protects minority views — no forced convergence |
| E — Emergent / abductive | New, still-forming phenomena. An observing stance: what is emerging? | Does not seek consensus — it maps |
| D — Intentional combination | A mixed form where different questions may carry different logic | Default for multifaceted studies |
| D+ — Four-path | Intentional and emergent in parallel | Two panels, each with its own requirements |
Orientation is not just a label — it constrains methodological choices. An R study does not use convergent "central-tendency only" feedback, because that would erase the very deviance it aims to protect. In an N study consensus is a natural target. Orientation also sets the panel type: N/S/R/D → expert matrix, E → observer matrix (see Building the panel).
Variation — the cadence of rounds
Alongside orientation, a variation is chosen that sets how rounds and feedback are paced. In Pronoia this is delphi_mode:
| Variation | How it advances | When |
|---|---|---|
| Argument Delphi (default) | Staged rounds: response → dialogue → revision → pause; aims at dissensus — tensions and reasoning | When reasoning and the differences between views are the result |
| Classic Delphi | The same process and phases as Argument Delphi; aims at reasoned consensus and measures it (CCI) | When the study must arrive at a position |
| Real-Time Delphi | One round in which answering and dialogue are open at the same time; no comparison between rounds | Fast, continuous eDelphi |
| Barometer Delphi | The same theses from one wave to the next; a thesis may be retired between waves | Repeated monitoring — a trend over time, not converging one run |
Variation and orientation are different axes: orientation gives the standpoint, variation the cadence. The same normative study can be run as any of the four. Round 0 (orientation) belongs to every variation.
Scoping the phenomenon — what is actually studied
Before the theses, the phenomenon is defined: the boundary of the inquiry. This is planning's most critical scoping step — it decides what is in and what is out. An optional pre-analysis sharpens it:
- Futures Wheel — an impact network: first-, second- and third-order consequences (STEEP+). Maps what follows from the phenomenon.
- Relevance Tree — a goals–means hierarchy: priorities and success criteria. Maps what the phenomenon aims at.
Pre-analysis produces a scoped, structured view of the phenomenon that feeds directly into panel and thesis design.
Question architecture — the theses
The theses are the collection instrument: every argument is one panel member's response to one thesis, so the set of arguments is theses × panel members. Thesis structure follows the orientation:
- Dialectical theses (N / S / R / D) — a claim taken a position on by probability and desirability; dialogue produces for/against arguments.
- Abductive theses (E) — more open and exploratory: what is emerging, what it looks like.
A single thesis's logic can be tuned with a P/D tag: probability (P) leans to consensus, desirability (D) allows dissensus — overriding the orientation default for that thesis. There are at least three theses.
Planning ends at a quality gate. Only a coherent design — orientation, phenomenon, panel and theses aligned — is packaged as the Planning Handoff Package and crosses into Pronoia for collection. The design is not rebuilt in Pronoia but continued (see Integration guide).
When there is no real panel — simulation
If no real panel exists yet, the Argument Simulator (Route B) generates synthetic, orientation-aware arguments for the theses — a test or seed dataset that can be carried into DAE. Simulation tests the theses before a real panel; it does not replace one.
Sources: help/02-orientaatiot, planning-core (M1a). Variations correspond to Pronoia's delphi_mode states.