Delphi variations
A study's variation decides how responses are collected and how movement is tracked over time. It sits alongside the orientation (N/S/R/E/D/D+) chosen in planning, and it sets the collection key and the lead indicator the analysis uses. The names are proper names and the same in every language: Argument Delphi, Classic Delphi, Real-Time Delphi, Barometer Delphi. The value stored in the contract is a different thing from the display name (the value for Classic Delphi is still Classical).
| Variation | Collection | Lead indicator | What it is · when to use |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argument Delphi | round | CDI | Dialectical, multi-voice: required rationale + dialogue over rounds; aims at dissensus — maps tensions and reasoning; 7×3 epistemic coding in analysis. The ecosystem's signature when reasoning matters more than a number. |
| Classic Delphi | round | CCI | The same process and phases as Argument Delphi; aims at reasoned consensus and measures it with consensus indicators. The safest general foresight setup. |
| Real-Time Delphi | window | RCI | One round of responding and dialogue, open at the same time from the start: panelists see the group state and revise anytime; no comparison between rounds. Fast, asynchronous. |
| Barometer Delphi | wave | BCI | The same theses rated again from one wave to the next — trend and opinion-shift monitoring; a thesis may be retired between waves. For longitudinal studies. |
The variation is an editable contract block; if absent, the default is Argument / round / CDI (backward compatible). Common to all four: Round 0 (orientation) belongs to every one, and dialogue exists in every one — the variations differ in where in the round the dialogue sits, not in whether it exists.
Templates for different purposes
Ready-to-run templates pair a variation with a panel and starter theses, so you can instantiate a complete study in one step — from the new-study wizard (which pre-fills every step) or by importing the package. Each is a contract-conformant starting point you then edit.
| Template | Base variation | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Classic foresight Delphi | Classical | General foresight baseline (probability/desirability + rationale). |
| Argument Delphi | Argument | Dialectical, polyphonic process with 7×3 epistemic coding. |
| Barometer | Barometer | Longitudinal trend monitoring across waves. |
| Participatory civic Delphi | Classical (observer / E) | Participatory foresight (e.g. local development); Asianosaisuus × expertise. |
| Real-Time Delphi | Real-Time | Fast, asynchronous continuous window. |
| Corporate strategy Delphi | Argument (hybrid) | Argumentative rounds + a consensus final round; org groups × competence. |
| Full-AI perspective panel | Argument (Route B) | End-to-end AI-panelist run (Hautamäki perspectives) — for full-process testing and human-validated AI-analysis development. |
Next: choose orientation and questions in Planning, and design the matrix in Panel design.