User guide
Delphi ecosystem — user guides
English · Version 1.0 · 2026-09-24
Planning (DPE) Facilitation (Pronoia) Analysis (DAE)
Abductive thesis — an open, exploratory thesis (E orientation): what is emerging.
Argument Delphi — a variation: dialectical theses and dialogue over rounds; aims at dissensus — maps tensions and reasoning (lead indicator CDI). The same process and phases as Classic Delphi.
Argument Simulator (Route B) — generator of synthetic, orientation-aware arguments when no real panel exists.
Barometer Delphi — a variation: the same theses rated from one time to the next, wave by wave; change over time is the finding (BCI). The only variation in which a thesis can be retired.
Basket (thesis material for the next round) — the facilitator's picks between rounds; does not change the comment and is not visible to the panel. Opens beside the thesis editor as source material.
Classic Delphi — a variation: the same process and phases as Argument Delphi; aims at reasoned consensus and measures it with consensus indicators (CCI). The value stored in the contract is Classical.
Commensurability — enough shared ground for genuine dialogue; the goal of panel design (not full consensus).
Convergence — the narrowing of positions across rounds.
CP-0…CP-20 — the DAE pipeline's 21 checkpoints, grouped into eight phases.
Dialectical thesis — a claim taken a position on by probability and desirability (N/S/R/D).
Dissensus — structured, well-understood disagreement; in Delphi as valuable a result as consensus.
ECI (Epistemic Coverage Index) — how many of the 21 argument cells (7 knowledge bases × 3 functions) are filled.
Export contract — Pronoia's validated payload to DAE (eDelphi CSV, Handoff Package JSON, DAE_STATE).
Home cell and additional membership — a panelist's primary place in the panel matrix and any additional groups on the same axis; group size is counted in people, not memberships.
Handoff — a structured transfer between stages: Planning Handoff Package (in), export contract (out).
k-anonymity (k = 3) — no sub-group of fewer than three people is reported at group level.
κ (kappa) — a coding-agreement measure in DAE; low κ routes to human coding.
Lock-in — a single perspective claiming universality and crowding out the rest.
Closing — the study's final pause: the facilitator writes a letter about the results and next steps, and it appears on the panelist's home page. Not a state that is set but a task that is done.
Orientation (N/S/R/E/D/D+) — the study's locked standpoint; sets theses, panel type and between-round stance.
Panel matrix — a two-axis designed epistemic space (e.g. expertise × stakeholder).
Pause — the state between rounds (round_closed), in which the facilitator reads the discussion, picks and builds the next round; for the panelist an interim result, not a waiting room.
Perspective = position + view — the same phenomenon looks different from different positions; the aim is to identify what each can/cannot see.
PHS (Perspective Health Score) — panel diversity on 0–12; guides supplementation.
Pick — starring (☆) a reasoning or comment as thesis material for the next round, with a reason; a methodological move from dialogue to a new instrument, not a bookmark.
PIRE — Pronoia's orientation-aware round-gap assistant.
Planning Handoff Package — the planning payload into Pronoia: orientation, matrix, theses, perspective context.
PQS (Panel Quality Score) — DAE's panel-validation quality score (CP-1).
Preview (View as panelist) — the facilitator sees the survey through a panelist's eyes under a preview identity of its own; nothing is saved, and the previewer does not appear in the panel's figures.
Pseudonym (handle) — a stable word handle (e.g. Aurora); anonymous to others, recognisable in dialogue.
QVG (Quality Validation Gate) — DAE's gate that routes to human review when AI validity is not enough.
Real-Time Delphi — a variation: one round in which answering and dialogue are open at the same time from the start; no comparison between rounds (RCI). The aim is set thesis by thesis.
Retirement (retiring → retired) — a Barometer Delphi concept: a thesis that has lost its future relevance is archived between waves. The decision and its taking effect are two moments; the replacing thesis names the one it replaced.
Revision rate — the share of people who changed their position after the dialogue among everyone who responded, humans and AI panelists together; computed in one place. Not the same as the number of revisions.
Round 0 — the orientation: an AI-assisted intake that motivates participants and maps the phenomenon before the instrument is locked. Belongs to every variation; the only way to skip it is the same in all.
Source material (provenance) — the contributions recorded on a thesis card as the ones the thesis came from; a deleted contribution keeps its record, its content is emptied.
Trilogy — a DAE phase group: content, system (depth/dynamics/purpose), futures.
Variation — the cadence of rounds: Argument Delphi, Classic Delphi, Real-Time Delphi or Barometer Delphi. The name is a proper name and is not translated. studies.variation is the truth from which delphi_mode is derived.
Wave — one measurement in a Barometer Delphi: the same theses rated again, the waves differing only in their date. A wave is not called a round, so that the words do not blur.
Phases (1a/1b) — a round's response (1a) and dialogue (1b) phases. A phase adds a capability, it never removes one: answering stays open in the dialogue.
Visibility (blind / after-submit / open) — the per-phase control of when a panelist sees others.
Yes. The three products work together as a pipeline but also apart: you can produce only a design (DPE), run Pronoia without DAE (descriptive reports), or analyse an existing dataset with DAE. The handoffs join the parts when you use them in sequence.
Pronoia is descriptive (what the panel said and how views moved). DAE is interpretive (what it means), under quality gates and human review. A Pronoia report is DAE's source material, not an analysis.
No. Pronoia produces descriptive reports (summary, per-thesis result cards, round comparison) in HTML/PDF/Word. They are a proper summary but stay descriptive.
Orientation (N/S/R/E/D/D+) gives the standpoint — from where the future is studied. Variation (Argument Delphi, Classic Delphi, Real-Time Delphi, Barometer Delphi) gives the cadence — how rounds are paced. They are different axes. Classic and Argument Delphi run the same process and differ only in the aim (consensus / dissensus); Real-Time Delphi runs one round; Barometer Delphi rates the same theses again from one wave to the next.
To protect the core sequence independent judgement → feedback → reconsideration from social pressure (anchoring, bandwagon, dominance). The default preset (Classic, used by both Classic Delphi and Argument Delphi) uses after-submit: no anchoring before you commit, feedback right after. The protection concerns seeing, not answering: in the dialogue phase an unanswered thesis can still be answered.
By default yes (for reminders and quality control). A per-panel blind-facilitator mode hides them, so the facilitator also sees only pseudonyms.
Always and everywhere: "AI" plus a 2–3 word role description (e.g. AI · Economist). Never hidden, never presented as human.
With k-anonymity (k = 3): sub-groups of fewer than three are not reported, and the rule applies independently on each matrix axis. On small panels the pulse is shown at whole-panel level only.
When the panel has converged, or when dissensus is stable and well-understood — further rounds would add cost without insight. Read the pulse (convergence/dissensus per thesis) before deciding.
No. Generative assistants (e.g. PIRE's deepening suggestions) are always drafts that require an audit and that the facilitator owns. Interpretation is done in DAE under quality gates.
Short entry points: where to start, the most important guides, and the one next line whose crossing raises your level.
Planning (DPE)
Your job: the research design — orientation, phenomenon, panel, questions.
Start: Orientation, variation and question architecture → Building the panel.
Next line: from assembling a single study → the Planning Handoff pipeline that seeds Pronoia without rebuilding.
Facilitation (Pronoia)
Your job: running Pronoia — Round 0, rounds, dialogue, anonymity, reports.
Start: The iterative process → Anonymity. Whole picture: Integration guide.
Next line: from building each round by hand → let PIRE suggest the between-round operations (you confirm); from reading descriptive reports → hand a round to DAE for interpretation.
Analysis (DAE)
Your job: integration, handoffs, MCP/plugins, installation.
Start: Integration guide (handoff schemas) → DAE pipeline → Anonymity: data model.
Next line: from handling individual transfers → the handoff contracts (Planning Handoff Package, export contract) that downstream verifies automatically — a malformed dataset cannot slip through.
Facilitation (Pronoia)
Your role: you take part in the panel — answer the theses, read others' reasoning and revise your position.
What you need to know: you answer independently first (others' answers are hidden until you commit), then you see an anonymized picture of the panel and can comment and update. You are anonymous to others under a pseudonym (e.g. Aurora); the facilitator may see your identity unless blind mode is on. AI panelists are always labelled "AI". The Home view shows a "since your last visit" digest — come back to see how the panel moved.
Next line: from a one-shot answer → coming back to revise: Delphi's value comes from reconsidering in light of others' reasoning.
→ A light participation guide is also in the app's in-app help.
Analysis (DAE)
Your role: you read the results and reports to support decisions — you don't run the study yourself.
What you need to know: distinguish descriptive from interpretive. A Pronoia report tells you what the panel said and how views moved (distributions, consensus/dissensus, arguments) — it is source material. A DAE report interprets: themes, scenarios, synthesis under quality gates. Dissensus is a result, not a failure: stable disagreement signals a real tension. Scenarios are alternative paths, not forecasts.
Next line: from reading a single figure → ask what is description and what is interpretation, and what a conclusion rests on (data provenance).
Start: Overview (descriptive vs. interpretive) → DAE guide (outputs).
Planning (DPE) Facilitation (Pronoia) Analysis (DAE)
The slides are generated from the same markdown source as these guides — in one build, as reveal.js decks. They are always in sync with the guides, not a separate slide library to maintain. Navigate with the arrow keys or space; the down arrow opens a section's inner slides.
| Section | Slides |
|---|---|
| Whole guide | Slides |
| Reference | Slides |
One deeper learning artifact is Food Paradigm 2050 — the whole planning pipeline run end to end (orientation D, Route B, 19 roles, PHS 12/12, 27/27 quality gates). It shows the method in practice; see also the Simulation block.
| Module | Relates to | Formats |
|---|---|---|
| Worked example — Food Paradigm 2050 | Planning (DPE) | Case card |
Note — the worked example is from 2026-05. Its method (orientation, panel, theses, perspective layer, handoff) still holds, but product specifics have moved on since. The most up-to-date source is always this guide (DPE/Pronoia/DAE).